Ethereum Whales Return to Profit as On-Chain Data Signals Recovery

Ethereum’s Largest Whales Return to Profit – On-Chain Signals Point to Potential Price Recovery

Key Takeaways

• Wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH have moved back into aggregate unrealized profit, according to CryptoQuant data.
• In previous cycles, Ether gained about 25% on average within three months after this whale profitability signal.
• Glassnode data shows ETH rebounding from its lowest MVRV deviation band, a setup seen in Q2 2022 and Q2 2025.
• The realized price at $2,353 represents a key recovery level, while $2,640 marks the next on-chain resistance zone.
• Technical charts show a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, with $2,625 identified as a measured upside target.

Whale Profitability Turns Positive After February Losses

Ethereum’s native token Ether has entered a new phase according to on-chain data tracking its largest holders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH have shifted back into an aggregate unrealized profit position. This is the first time this group has returned to profitability since early February.

The unrealized profit ratio for this cohort has flipped above zero. In practical terms, this means that, on average, these large holders are no longer sitting on paper losses. In previous market cycles, similar transitions marked the beginning of upward price movements.

According to analysis cited in the report, Ether delivered average gains of nearly 25% within three months after this whale ratio turned positive. Over six months, average gains reached roughly 50%, and over a year, returns approached 300% following the same signal.

The underlying interpretation of this metric is linked to selling pressure. When large holders are in loss, they may be more inclined to sell defensively. Once they return to profit, that pressure can ease. At the same time, a positive shift among the largest holders may strengthen broader market confidence by signaling renewed conviction at the top end of the ownership structure.

Historical Performance and Risk of False Signals

While the whale profitability signal has coincided with recoveries in the past, the data also shows that it is not consistently predictive. In 2018, Ether declined by 17.5% in the month following a similar flip into profitability. The asset later fell by nearly 70% despite the earlier positive signal.

This historical example illustrates that on-chain metrics can align with recovery phases but do not eliminate downside risk. For market participants, including those using Ether for trading, payments, or as collateral, such signals form part of a broader analytical framework rather than a standalone indicator.

MVRV Bands Identify Key Recovery and Resistance Levels

A separate on-chain indicator from Glassnode adds further context to Ethereum’s current position. ETH has rebounded from its lowest MVRV deviation band, a zone associated with undervaluation in past cycles. Similar setups occurred in the second quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2025, when price recovered from depressed levels and moved back above its realized price.

At present, Ether remains below its realized price of $2,353. The realized price represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all circulating coins and is widely monitored as a recovery threshold. A sustained move above this level would signal that the average holder has returned to profit.

If ETH breaks above $2,353, the next reference level derived from the MVRV model lies near the negative 0.5 sigma band around $2,640. This zone defines an area where price previously encountered resistance during recovery attempts.

On the downside, failure to reclaim the realized price could expose ETH to renewed weakness. The lowest deviation band, currently near $1,651, represents a potential retest level if selling pressure increases.

Technical Breakout Targets $2,625 Zone

Beyond on-chain data, chart analysis indicates that Ether has broken above an ascending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe. After the breakout, price action is now retesting the former resistance trendline.

Such retests are common after technical breakouts. Markets often revisit the breakout level to confirm that it has turned into support. If this level holds, the measured upside target derived from the triangle formation stands at approximately $2,625 or higher.

This technical target aligns closely with the $2,640 area highlighted by Glassnode’s MVRV bands, creating overlap between chart-based and on-chain reference points.

However, if the retest fails and the breakout structure weakens, ETH could fall back toward the lower support zone between $1,950 and $2,000. This area represents a near-term support range identified on the daily chart.

What the Current Setup Means for Market Participants

For crypto users, including those active on trading platforms or using Ether in digital services, the combination of whale profitability data, MVRV positioning, and technical breakout levels provides a structured view of the current market phase.

The return of the largest ETH holders to aggregate profit reduces one identifiable source of potential sell pressure. At the same time, key thresholds such as the realized price at $2,353 and resistance near $2,640 define concrete levels that traders and risk managers may monitor.

Because historical signals have produced both recoveries and false starts, price confirmation around these levels remains central to assessing the durability of the current move.

Our Assessment

On-chain data shows that Ethereum’s largest holders have returned to aggregate unrealized profit for the first time since early February. In prior cycles, this shift coincided with average gains of 25% over three months and 50% over six months, although past instances also included periods of renewed decline. Glassnode’s MVRV bands identify $2,353 as a key recovery level and $2,640 as a near-term resistance zone, while technical charts point to a potential target around $2,625 if the recent breakout holds. Together, these indicators define measurable upside and downside thresholds without removing underlying market risk.