Solana ETFs Attract $1.5 Billion in Inflows Despite 57% Token Decline – Institutional Investors Maintain Exposure During Market Downturn

Key Takeaways

Solana ETFs Accumulate $1.5 Billion Since July Launch

Exchange-traded funds tied to Solana have gathered $1.5 billion in net inflows since their launch in the United States in July. This accumulation has occurred despite a sharp decline in the underlying token’s price.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the funds have largely retained these inflows and have “not really given any of it up” even as market conditions turned negative. The performance stands out because Solana has lost more than half of its value during the same period.

Balchunas described the inflow figures as “pretty impressive numbers” given the scale and direction of the underlying market. In typical market cycles, ETFs that launch into a declining asset environment often struggle to maintain investor interest.

Institutional Investors Account for Half of Inflows

Approximately 50% of the capital entering Solana ETFs has come from institutional investors, according to Balchunas. He characterized this as a “serious investor base,” highlighting that professional market participants represent a substantial share of the demand.

Institutional participation is often viewed as a measure of product stability because such investors typically allocate capital through structured mandates and longer time horizons. In this case, the data indicates that a significant portion of ETF exposure to Solana is not driven solely by retail flows.

Balchunas noted that ETFs launched during a 57% drawdown would normally find it “near impossible to get inflows.” He added that most funds would struggle to survive their first year under similar conditions. The ability of Solana ETFs to attract and hold capital while the asset price declines has therefore drawn attention among market observers.

Comparison With Bitcoin ETF Market Size Dynamics

Balchunas also compared Solana ETF inflows to those seen in Bitcoin ETFs at a similar stage of their development. Solana’s market capitalization stands at about $50 billion, while Bitcoin’s is around $1.4 trillion.

After adjusting for market size differences, Balchunas said Solana ETFs have seen the equivalent of $54 billion in net new flows when measured against Bitcoin’s market capitalization. He stated that this is roughly double where Bitcoin stood at the same point in its ETF lifecycle.

A key distinction, however, is that Bitcoin’s price was rising in the months following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. In contrast, Solana’s price has declined significantly since its ETF products became available. The inflow data therefore reflects investor allocations during a period of negative price momentum for Solana.

Recent Flow Activity Shows First Monthly Outflow Day

While overall inflows remain intact, Solana ETFs recorded their first net outflow day in over a month on Thursday, with $6 million leaving the six listed products. The data was reported by CoinGlass.

This followed a stronger inflow session on Wednesday, when $19 million entered the same group of ETFs. The shift indicates short-term variability in demand, although cumulative flows since launch remain positive.

Short-term flow changes are common across ETF markets and can reflect portfolio rebalancing, profit taking, or broader market sentiment shifts. In this case, the outflow day comes amid continued price pressure on the underlying asset.

Solana Price Down 70% From January 2025 Peak

Solana reached an all-time high of $293 in January 2025 during a period marked by heightened activity around memecoin issuance on the network. Since then, the token has declined 70% from that peak.

At the time of reporting, SOL is trading around $88. The token has fallen 2.7% over the past 24 hours and 11% over the past month, according to CoinGecko data cited in the report. Since the beginning of the year, SOL has dropped nearly 30%.

The 57% decline referenced in relation to ETF performance specifically measures the drop since the US-based Solana ETFs launched in July. The broader 70% drawdown reflects the fall from the January 2025 all-time high.

Implications for Crypto Investment Products

The divergence between ETF inflows and underlying price performance highlights a notable dynamic in crypto investment products. In this case, capital continued to enter Solana ETFs even as the token experienced sustained losses.

Balchunas described this as “defying physics,” referring to the difficulty ETFs typically face when launched into declining markets. Most funds tied to assets that drop more than half within months of launch struggle to maintain investor interest, according to his assessment.

For market participants tracking crypto-linked financial products, the data underscores that ETF flows and spot prices do not always move in parallel. Inflows can reflect strategic positioning, diversification strategies, or institutional mandates independent of short-term price direction.

Our Assessment

Solana ETFs have accumulated $1.5 billion in inflows since their July launch in the United States, even as the SOL token has fallen 57% over the same period and 70% from its January 2025 peak. About half of these inflows originate from institutional investors. Although the products recently recorded their first net outflow day in more than a month, cumulative flows remain positive. The data shows sustained capital allocation into Solana-linked ETFs during a period of significant price decline in the underlying asset.

Zerohash Applies for US National Trust Bank Charter – Move Would Expand Custody and Settlement Services for Digital Assets

Key Takeaways

Zerohash Seeks Federal Trust Status to Expand Crypto Infrastructure Services

Chicago based digital asset infrastructure provider Zerohash has filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter. The move would allow the company to operate a federally regulated trust entity focused on digital assets and related financial services.

Zerohash provides backend crypto infrastructure to banks, brokerages and fintech platforms. According to its website, clients include prediction markets platform Kalshi and asset manager BlackRock. By obtaining a national trust charter, the firm aims to expand its role in digital asset custody and settlement.

The proposed national trust bank would provide custody for digital assets, fiat currency and other assets. It would also offer custodial staking, transfer agent services and stablecoin management. Stephen Gardner, the company’s chief legal officer, is listed as the proposed chief executive officer of the trust bank.

For users of crypto platforms, custody structure and regulatory status influence how assets are held and administered. A national trust charter would place Zerohash under federal oversight by the OCC, aligning it with other trust institutions that specialize in safeguarding assets rather than operating as full service commercial banks.

What a National Trust Bank Charter Allows and Restricts

A national trust bank differs from a traditional bank in several key aspects. Trust banks cannot accept deposits or issue loans. Instead, their primary function is to hold and administer assets on behalf of clients.

In the crypto sector, this structure has become relevant for firms focused on digital asset custody, settlement and related services such as staking and stablecoin administration. Federal trust status provides a uniform regulatory framework across US states, rather than requiring multiple state level licenses.

Zerohash joins a group of crypto and fintech firms that have recently pursued similar federal charters. In December, the OCC granted conditional approval for trust charters requested by Circle Internet Group Inc., Ripple, BitGo Inc., Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos. These approvals signal that federal regulators are processing applications from digital asset companies seeking trust status, although final approvals remain subject to regulatory conditions.

For international users evaluating crypto service providers, federal trust status can affect how assets are legally segregated and supervised within the United States. While a trust charter does not permit lending or deposit taking, it formalizes custody and administrative activities under federal banking law.

Mastercard Explored Acquisition as Zerohash Remains Independent

Earlier this year, Mastercard considered acquiring Zerohash in a deal reportedly valued at up to 2 billion US dollars. The company chose to remain independent and rejected an outright purchase.

According to reports, the two companies are now discussing a strategic investment. Such an arrangement would allow Mastercard exposure to Zerohash’s technology and client base while preserving Zerohash’s autonomy.

This context highlights Zerohash’s position within the broader digital asset infrastructure market. Rather than operating a consumer facing exchange or wallet, the company focuses on providing regulated backend services to financial institutions and fintech platforms that integrate crypto functionality for their users.

Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account for Direct Dollar Settlement

In a separate development, crypto exchange Kraken announced that it has secured a Federal Reserve master account. The approval was granted to Kraken Financial by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

A master account allows Kraken to access the US central bank’s core payment infrastructure directly. Through Fedwire, the company can settle US dollar transactions without relying on intermediary banks.

However, Kraken will not receive all the benefits associated with traditional banks. The company will not earn interest on reserves held at the Federal Reserve and will not have access to the Fed’s lending facilities. The arrangement reflects discussions around so called skinny master accounts, which provide limited access to payment systems without full banking privileges.

Access to the Federal Reserve payment system has historically been restricted, and crypto firms have sought similar approvals. Other companies, including Ripple and Custodia Bank, have pursued comparable access, although approvals have been selective.

For users, direct access to Fedwire can affect how efficiently US dollar transactions are processed within a platform’s banking structure. It also reduces reliance on third party correspondent banks for settlement.

Regulatory Positioning Becomes Central for Crypto Infrastructure Providers

Both Zerohash’s trust bank application and Kraken’s master account approval reflect a broader focus on regulatory positioning among crypto infrastructure providers in the United States.

Zerohash is seeking a federal trust structure to formalize custody, staking and stablecoin services under OCC supervision. Kraken, through its banking arm, has secured direct access to the US payment system while operating under limited banking privileges.

For international users of crypto trading, betting or payment platforms, these developments matter because infrastructure providers often sit behind consumer facing services. Custody arrangements, settlement mechanisms and access to fiat payment rails influence how platforms manage client funds and process transactions.

Our Assessment

Zerohash’s application for a national trust bank charter would, if approved, place its digital asset custody and settlement services under federal oversight by the OCC. Trust status would allow the company to hold and administer assets but not to accept deposits or issue loans.

Kraken’s approval for a Federal Reserve master account grants direct access to US dollar settlement infrastructure, while limiting traditional banking benefits such as interest on reserves or central bank lending.

Together, these developments show that major crypto infrastructure providers are pursuing formal regulatory frameworks and direct payment access within the United States, shaping how digital assets and fiat transactions are managed at the institutional level.

Altcoin Social Media Mentions Drop to Two-Year Low as Bitcoin Dominates Market Attention

Key Takeaways

Altcoin Social Dominance Falls to Lowest Level Since 2024

Mentions of altcoins across social media platforms have dropped to their lowest point in two years, according to data from crypto sentiment platform Santiment. For the week ending Feb. 27, Santiment recorded an altcoin social dominance score of 33. In July 2025, the same metric stood at 750, marking a significant contraction in online discussion.

Santiment tracks how frequently altcoins are mentioned relative to other crypto assets. The latest reading suggests that attention has shifted away from the broader altcoin market. In July 2025, elevated social engagement coincided with a 59% 30-day rally in Dogecoin.

Search behavior reflects a similar trend. According to Google Trends, global interest in the term “altcoins” scored 4 out of 100 near the end of February. In mid-August, the same term reached a peak score of 100. The data indicates a sharp reduction in retail search activity related to alternative cryptocurrencies.

Market Focus Shifts Toward Bitcoin

Other indicators also point to a concentration of market attention on Bitcoin. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index currently shows a “Bitcoin Season” reading of 34 out of 100. The index compares the performance of the top 100 altcoins to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. When most altcoins outperform Bitcoin, the index signals “Altcoin Season.” When they underperform, it signals “Bitcoin Season.”

A score of 34 suggests that Bitcoin has outperformed the majority of large altcoins over the past three months. This performance divergence aligns with the decline in social and search interest for altcoins.

The broader crypto market remains below previous highs. Total market capitalization has fallen by nearly 43% since October and currently stands at $2.45 trillion. The contraction reflects a period of reduced valuations across digital assets, even as short-term price movements show renewed volatility.

Bitcoin Gains 7.51% in 24 Hours

Despite the overall decline in total market capitalization since October, Bitcoin recorded a 7.51% price increase over the past 24 hours. The move followed comments from US President Donald Trump stating that “the US needs to get the Market Structure done, ASAP.”

Market participants cited several factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent price movement. These include compressed volatility, strengthening exchange-traded fund flows, and a diminished Coinbase discount. Together, these elements coincided with the latest upward price action.

While Bitcoin strengthened, attention toward altcoins remained subdued. According to Santiment, periods of historically low altcoin social volume have often preceded renewed rallies in that segment. The firm described the current lack of interest as a “strong buy signal” based on past patterns. This observation is rooted in historical data rather than a forward-looking forecast.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe also commented on market rotation dynamics. He stated that altcoins could gain momentum once Bitcoin’s rally begins to slow. His remarks highlight the common pattern of capital rotation between Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies during different market phases.

What the Current Data Shows About Market Positioning

The available indicators collectively show a market environment where Bitcoin commands the majority of investor focus. Social engagement, search trends, and relative performance metrics all reflect reduced attention toward altcoins.

The Altcoin Season Index reading of 34 confirms that Bitcoin has outperformed most large alternative cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days. At the same time, the drop in social dominance from 750 in July 2025 to 33 in late February underscores a sharp change in sentiment and engagement levels.

The total crypto market capitalization of $2.45 trillion, down nearly 43% from October, provides additional context for the broader environment. Although Bitcoin has posted a notable 24-hour gain, the market as a whole remains below prior levels.

For users evaluating crypto assets, these metrics offer measurable data points. Social sentiment, search interest, performance comparisons, and market capitalization trends each provide different perspectives on how capital and attention are currently distributed within the digital asset market.

Our Assessment

Current data shows that altcoin-related social media discussion and search interest have fallen to their lowest levels in two years, while Bitcoin has outperformed most major alternative cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days. The Altcoin Season Index signals a Bitcoin-dominant phase, and Bitcoin recently recorded a 7.51% daily gain amid compressed volatility and ETF flow activity. Total crypto market capitalization remains approximately 43% below its October level, indicating that the broader market has not fully recovered despite recent price movements in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Rises Above $72,000 – ETF Inflows and Short Covering Support Price Amid Middle East Tensions

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin Breaks Above $72,000 After Prolonged Downtrend

Bitcoin traded above $72,000 during Asian trading hours on March 4, marking its highest level in one month. The move followed a period of sustained weakness, with six straight weekly losses and five consecutive months of price declines.

The previous day, the asset had approached $70,000 but failed to move decisively above that level. The breakout occurred as market participants adjusted positions after weeks of defensive trading.

According to reporting by Bitcoin Magazine, the rebound reflected a shift in positioning rather than a wave of new bullish demand. Many traders had built significant short positions amid concerns that tensions involving Iran could escalate into a wider regional conflict. When the situation did not broaden as feared, those bearish bets were unwound, contributing to upward price pressure.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $71,700, slightly below the session high but still above the $71,000 threshold highlighted by market analysts.

ETF Inflows Provide Institutional Support

Institutional flows through U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds contributed to market support. Over the past five trading days, these products recorded approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows.

Daily figures remained elevated. On March 3, net inflows reached $225 million, following $458 million the day before. These inflows coincided with the price rebound and suggest sustained institutional participation during a period of broader market uncertainty.

For users of crypto platforms and betting services that rely on Bitcoin liquidity, ETF-driven demand can affect short-term price stability and trading volumes. Increased inflows typically correspond with higher spot market activity, which may influence transaction timing and hedging strategies for operators managing crypto exposure.

Derivatives and On-Chain Data Signal Cautious Stabilization

On-chain and derivatives data indicate that market conditions have stabilized, though traders remain cautious.

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s relative strength index rose to 41, up from 36 the previous week. This change points to improving momentum after an extended period of weakness. Spot trading volume increased to $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion, reflecting renewed activity in the underlying market.

However, derivatives markets continue to show defensive positioning. Perpetual futures funding rates remain negative, indicating that short positions still dominate in certain segments. Open interest in major contracts has grown, suggesting that traders are adjusting or rolling positions rather than aggressively entering new long trades.

Nicolai Sondergaard, Research Analyst at Nansen, told Bitcoin Magazine that holding above $71,000 through the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls release could materially shift the current trading range. He noted that a softer payrolls number might reinforce expectations of rate cuts ahead of the March 18 Federal Open Market Committee decision. Conversely, if the $71,000 level fails to hold, the previously established $60,000 to $71,000 range would remain intact.

Stablecoin Legislation Debate Adds Regulatory Context

Alongside market movements, regulatory developments in the United States remain in focus. President Trump recently criticized the banking industry, stating that the stablecoin legislation signed last year, known as the GENIUS Act, is being threatened and undermined by banks.

The dispute centers on a provision that bars stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders. Banks argue that this creates a loophole for third-party reward programs. Crypto advocates maintain that such rewards are necessary for stablecoins to compete effectively in payment markets.

The disagreement has slowed progress in the Senate on related market structure legislation, including the Clarity Act. Meetings led by the White House between banking and crypto representatives have not yet resolved the standoff.

For users of crypto betting platforms and online gambling services that rely on stablecoin transactions, regulatory clarity in the United States can influence product design, payment features, and cross-border usability.

Our Assessment

Bitcoin’s move above $72,000 follows months of sustained declines and coincides with significant inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs. The rebound was driven in part by short covering linked to geopolitical concerns that did not escalate further. On-chain indicators show improving momentum, while derivatives markets remain defensively positioned. At the same time, unresolved U.S. stablecoin legislation highlights ongoing regulatory discussions that may affect broader crypto market structure. Together, these factors frame the current environment for market participants and crypto platform users.

MARA Rejects Claims of Bitcoin Treasury Sell-Off – Filing Clarifies Flexibility Without Mandated Liquidation

Key Takeaways

Executive Response to Sell-Off Claims

MARA Holdings, one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining companies, has publicly rejected assertions that it is preparing to offload most of its Bitcoin reserves. The clarification was issued by Robert Samuels, MARA’s vice president for investor relations, in response to claims circulating on social media.

The claims originated from SwanDesk adviser Jacob King, who stated that MARA had shifted toward a sell-down strategy. King cited filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as the basis for his interpretation. His post drew more than 325,000 views at the time of reporting, amplifying the narrative that the company was preparing a significant reduction of its Bitcoin holdings.

Samuels responded by pointing to the company’s 2026 10-K filing. According to him, the document states that MARA expanded its treasury strategy to allow for potential sales of Bitcoin held on its balance sheet. He emphasized that this change does not represent a commitment to sell the majority of the company’s reserves.

What the 2026 10-K Filing States

The 2026 10-K filing authorizes discretionary transactions involving Bitcoin based on market conditions and capital allocation priorities. The language provides the company with flexibility to sell Bitcoin when management deems it appropriate.

However, the filing does not require or mandate a reduction of the company’s treasury holdings. The distinction, as outlined by Samuels, lies between maintaining optionality and committing to a material drawdown of reserves. In other words, the policy change broadens the company’s operational flexibility without signaling an immediate or large-scale liquidation plan.

For market participants, this difference is significant. A mandated sell-off would imply structural changes to the company’s treasury management. A discretionary framework, by contrast, allows management to respond to evolving financial conditions without predefining the scale or timing of any transactions.

MARA’s Bitcoin Treasury Position

Bitcoin remains central to MARA’s balance sheet. The company currently holds 53,822 BTC, valued at approximately $3.7 billion. This makes MARA the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner by treasury size.

Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows a one-year history of MARA’s Bitcoin holdings, underscoring the scale and continuity of its reserve strategy. Among public companies overall, only Michael Saylor’s Strategy holds more Bitcoin, with over 720,000 BTC accumulated to date.

MARA has historically positioned itself as a long-term Bitcoin holder. Because of this positioning, any perceived adjustment to its treasury approach attracts attention from investors and market observers. Publicly listed mining companies with substantial Bitcoin reserves often see their treasury policies scrutinized, particularly when filings introduce new language around asset sales.

Diversification Efforts Alongside Core Bitcoin Exposure

While Bitcoin remains central to MARA’s financial structure, the company has broadened its operational footprint in recent years. In February, MARA acquired a 64 percent stake in Exaion, a France-based computing infrastructure company focused on high-performance computing and blockchain services.

This move reflects diversification beyond pure Bitcoin mining operations. Even so, the company’s balance sheet remains heavily tied to Bitcoin exposure. The scale of its holdings means that treasury decisions can influence how investors assess its financial flexibility and risk profile.

The combination of diversification initiatives and continued large-scale Bitcoin reserves indicates that MARA is expanding operationally while maintaining a substantial digital asset position.

Why Treasury Policy Matters for Market Participants

For investors and industry observers, the management of corporate Bitcoin treasuries carries broader implications. Large miners with significant reserves can affect market sentiment when they signal potential changes in holding or selling strategies.

In this case, the public discussion was triggered by interpretations of regulatory filings. MARA’s response clarifies that expanding authorization to sell Bitcoin does not equate to a declared sell-off strategy. Instead, it formalizes the company’s ability to execute sales if management considers them appropriate under prevailing market conditions.

Given MARA’s position as the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner by treasury size, statements regarding its reserve management are closely monitored. The clarification aims to distinguish between regulatory language that enables flexibility and narratives suggesting a fundamental shift in strategy.

Our Assessment

MARA Holdings has stated that its updated 2026 10-K filing expands its ability to sell Bitcoin but does not mandate a majority liquidation of its reserves. The company continues to hold 53,822 BTC, valued at about $3.7 billion, and remains the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner by treasury size. The clarification addresses social media claims and underscores that the revised policy provides discretionary flexibility rather than signaling a structural change in its Bitcoin treasury approach.

Iran Bitcoin Outflows Reach $10.3 Million After US-Israel Airstrikes – On-Chain Data Points to Capital Flight and Self-Custody Shift

Key Takeaways

Airstrikes in Tehran Trigger Immediate Spike in Crypto Withdrawals

On February 28, 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes hit key targets in Tehran, including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and the Pasteur district. Reports later confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.

In the hours following the strikes, on-chain data showed a marked increase in cryptocurrency activity. According to data compiled by Chainalysis, approximately $10.3 million in crypto assets flowed out of Iranian exchanges between February 28 and March 2. The timing of these withdrawals coincided with the immediate aftermath of the military action.

Chainalysis previously analyzed Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem and found that trading volumes and withdrawals tend to rise during periods of domestic unrest and geopolitical shocks. The latest outflows follow that established pattern, with blockchain data showing a sharp increase in transactions soon after the strikes.

Nobitex Records 700 Percent Outflow Surge

Elliptic, a blockchain analytics firm, reported that Nobitex, Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, experienced a 700 percent jump in outflows within minutes of the first airstrikes. Nobitex plays a central role in Iran’s digital asset market, serving more than 11 million users and processing $7.2 billion in crypto transactions in 2025.

The exchange provides a direct channel for converting Iranian rials into cryptocurrencies and transferring funds to external wallets. According to Elliptic, many of the withdrawn funds were traced to overseas exchanges that have historically received inflows from Iran. This pattern indicates that users sought to move capital beyond the domestic financial system following the escalation.

The surge at Nobitex was more pronounced than the broader market movement, highlighting the exchange’s importance as a liquidity hub for Iranian crypto users.

Three Main Drivers Identified by Chainalysis

Chainalysis outlined three plausible explanations for the increase in outflows from Iranian exchanges.

First, individual users appear to have transferred assets from centralized exchanges to personal wallets. In previous periods of unrest, including protest waves in 2025, bitcoin withdrawals to self-custodial wallets increased as citizens sought to maintain control over their funds. The February 28 activity reflects a similar pattern, with users moving assets amid concerns about instability and potential restrictions.

Second, exchanges themselves may have shifted funds between wallets. Chainalysis noted that operational fund cycling can occur to manage liquidity or obscure internal activity. This practice gained urgency after a 2025 hack of Nobitex in which more than $90 million in assets were stolen. In times of crisis, exchanges may increase internal transfers to maintain operational resilience.

Third, some transfers could involve state-aligned actors using domestic platforms for cross-border trade, sanctions evasion, or proxy financing. Chainalysis stated that distinguishing between retail-driven outflows and state-linked activity requires deeper wallet-level analysis over time. In the immediate aftermath of the strikes, the motives behind individual transactions remain difficult to separate.

Parallels With Earlier Protest-Driven Withdrawals

The recent spike resembles patterns observed earlier in 2026. During anti-regime protests in January, bitcoin withdrawals from Iranian exchanges surged in anticipation of government-imposed internet blackouts. Activity then plateaued while connectivity restrictions were in place and resumed once access was restored.

The February 28 airstrikes appear to have triggered a comparable sequence. Outflows climbed sharply following the attacks, reflecting a rapid response by users to geopolitical developments. Past data cited by Chainalysis shows that Iranian crypto activity often responds directly to domestic events, with increases in both trading volumes and withdrawals during periods of uncertainty.

Implications for Users Moving Funds Internationally

Elliptic’s tracing of funds to overseas exchanges indicates that a portion of the capital left Iranian platforms for foreign destinations. For users, this means that centralized exchanges inside the country served as a bridge between the domestic currency and international crypto markets.

Nobitex’s transaction volume of $7.2 billion in 2025 underlines its role in facilitating such flows. With more than 11 million users, movements on this platform can materially affect on-chain activity levels linked to Iran.

For international observers, including users of crypto-based financial and betting platforms, the data illustrates how geopolitical events can rapidly influence exchange balances, wallet transfers, and cross-border crypto flows. On-chain analytics firms such as Chainalysis and Elliptic provide transaction-level visibility into these shifts, though attribution of motives remains complex.

Our Assessment

On-chain data from Chainalysis and Elliptic shows that the February 28, 2026 airstrikes in Tehran were followed by a measurable increase in cryptocurrency outflows from Iranian exchanges, totaling about $10.3 million within days. Nobitex recorded a 700 percent surge in withdrawals, with funds traced in part to overseas exchanges. The activity aligns with previously documented patterns in Iran, where domestic unrest and geopolitical shocks coincide with higher trading volumes and increased transfers to self-custody and foreign platforms. The data highlights the responsiveness of Iran’s crypto ecosystem to sudden political and military developments.

Bitcoin Reclaims $68,500 as Downside Momentum Fades – Analysts Say Bear Market Structure Remains Intact

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Stabilization After Recent Declines

Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests that selling pressure may be losing intensity, according to multiple analysts cited by Cointelegraph. 10x Research noted that Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower despite risk-off headlines, describing this as a signal that downside pressure could be fading.

The asset reclaimed its 20-day moving average near $68,500. Bollinger Bands are tightening, a technical condition that often precedes range expansion. In late trading on Monday, Bitcoin returned to just above $70,000 on Coinbase before retreating to around $68,400 at the time of reporting, based on TradingView data.

From a technical perspective, the $62,500 level has held on three separate tests. 10x Research described this as reinforcing the level as meaningful support. At the same time, bullish divergences are emerging. Both the relative strength index and stochastic indicators are trending higher, which analysts interpret as early signs that momentum may be stabilizing, even within a broader bearish structure.

Analysts Describe a Tactical Shift, Not a Structural Reversal

Despite these signals, 10x Research emphasized that the current developments do not amount to a confirmed trend reversal. The firm characterized the situation as a meaningful tactical shift rather than a structural turn in market conditions.

Volatility compression, stronger ETF flows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase discount were cited as evidence that the market is not accelerating into a fresh leg lower. The Coinbase discount refers to a situation where Bitcoin trades at a lower price on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. Its disappearance indicates improved price alignment.

However, under its broader allocation framework, 10x Research continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime. As a result, the firm considers any bullish exposure to be tactical rather than structural.

This distinction is relevant for market participants evaluating short-term positioning versus longer-term allocation strategies. According to the analysts, current signals suggest stabilization, but they do not yet confirm a broader reversal from the prevailing downtrend.

Macro and Crypto Events Contribute to Measured Market Conditions

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that recent price weakness followed a series of macroeconomic and crypto-native events that had pushed the market lower.

He noted that the market environment has shifted from what he described as frantic conditions to something more measured. In his assessment, this change in tone supports the possibility of consolidation, accumulation, or a period of range-bound trading.

D’Anethan pointed out that selling pressure has not had as much impact as might be expected given developments such as tariffs, the prospect of a war, or previously disappointing rate cut expectations. He stated that this could indicate that sellers are becoming exhausted or that buyers are averaging into positions at current levels.

These observations focus on market behavior rather than forecasting direction. The absence of sharp follow-through to the downside, even amid adverse headlines, is presented as evidence of waning momentum.

Short Squeeze Linked to Deeply Negative Funding Rates

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, offered a derivatives-focused explanation for Bitcoin’s recent bounce. He said that downside momentum is fading primarily due to deeply negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets.

Negative funding rates mean that short sellers are paying long position holders to maintain their positions. According to Adziima, this environment led to overcrowded short positions. As Bitcoin rebounded sharply from lows near $63,000, a classic short squeeze was triggered. Heavy liquidations followed, easing selling pressure through what he described as tactical relief.

Despite this rebound, Adziima stated that no confirmed trend reversal has occurred. He cited the absence of structural inflows, a lack of macro catalysts, and the persistence of the broader downtrend from the all-time high. He also referenced fragile liquidity and resistance levels ahead.

This analysis indicates that the recent price strength may be linked to positioning dynamics rather than new capital entering the market.

Implications for Market Participants

For traders and investors, the current environment combines signs of stabilization with ongoing structural caution. Technical indicators such as tightening Bollinger Bands and bullish divergences suggest that selling pressure has moderated. At the same time, analysts consistently highlight that the broader bear market framework remains intact.

The interaction between spot market behavior, ETF flows, exchange pricing dynamics, and derivatives positioning illustrates how multiple factors are shaping short-term price movements. Funding rate imbalances and short squeezes can produce sharp rebounds without necessarily altering the longer-term trend.

For users active in crypto markets, including those transacting in Bitcoin for trading or payment purposes, these conditions point to a market that is stabilizing but not yet confirmed to have shifted into a new structural phase.

Our Assessment

Based on the information provided, analysts agree that Bitcoin’s downside momentum has weakened, supported by technical indicators, stronger ETF flows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase discount. However, multiple sources maintain that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear market regime. Recent price gains are attributed in part to short squeezes driven by negative funding rates rather than confirmed structural inflows or macro catalysts. The overall picture reflects tactical stabilization without verified trend reversal.

Cake Wallet Integrates Bitcoin Lightning Network – Self-Custody and Privacy Set as Default Features

Key Takeaways

Cake Wallet Adds Lightning Network Support to Its Mobile App

Cake Wallet has announced the integration of Bitcoin’s Lightning Network into its privacy-focused mobile wallet. The update brings support for Bitcoin’s fast payments layer while maintaining full self-custody for users.

According to the company, the Lightning functionality is powered by the Breez SDK and Spark. This setup enables users to control their funds without operating their own Lightning node. Self-custody remains central to the implementation, meaning users retain control over their private keys rather than relying on a third party.

With this step, Cake Wallet joins a limited group of wallets that combine Lightning support with an explicit focus on privacy and user-controlled custody. The company positions this release as a continuation of its broader strategy to expand advanced Bitcoin functionality within a mobile environment.

Privacy Defaults Limit Transaction Visibility

In its announcement, Cake Wallet detailed how privacy is handled in the new Lightning integration. The company stated that Lightning transactions in the app do not embed a user’s Spark address in Lightning invoices. In addition, transaction data is not published to public explorers by default.

According to the press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine, this design limits unnecessary exposure of user activity. By restricting visibility and reducing publicly accessible transaction details, Cake Wallet aims to lower the risk of third-party tracking and related threats.

Seth for Privacy, COO of Cake Wallet, said that Lightning should not require users to give up privacy or custody in exchange for faster payments. He described the current implementation as combining practical Lightning usage with privacy defaults and a clear option to move funds back on-chain.

Vikrant Sharma, CEO of Cake Labs, stated that the integration with Breez and Spark allows Lightning to function in a way that aligns with the wallet’s core principles. He emphasized that users do not need to turn their bitcoin into an IOU or relinquish control in order to access fast transactions.

Building on Advanced Bitcoin Features

The Lightning integration follows a series of Bitcoin-focused updates within Cake Wallet. The company has previously implemented features such as Silent Payments and Payjoin. These technologies are designed to enhance transaction privacy and reduce the ability of third parties to track user behavior on the blockchain.

Cake Wallet distinguishes itself from many multi-coin wallets by going beyond basic on-chain address support. While other wallets may offer standard Bitcoin transactions, Cake has added tools that aim to protect users from risks such as targeted scams linked to transparent blockchain activity.

By combining on-chain privacy tools with Lightning functionality, the wallet expands its Bitcoin-specific feature set. The approach focuses on offering both fast payments and transaction privacy within the same mobile application.

Additional Updates and Expanded Functionality

Alongside Lightning support, Cake Wallet introduced user interface improvements. The update includes social features such as Birdpay, which allows users to send crypto to X.com accounts by entering a username.

In recent months, the company has also added support for xStocks. This feature enables users to trade and invest in tokenized equities directly within the wallet. The addition of tokenized stocks broadens the scope of assets available through the application beyond cryptocurrencies.

These updates indicate that Cake Wallet is expanding both its technical infrastructure and its asset offerings. While the Lightning integration focuses specifically on Bitcoin payments, other additions aim to increase the range of financial tools accessible through the mobile app.

Relevance for Users Evaluating Crypto Wallets and Payment Options

For users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, including those active in online services that accept crypto, Lightning support can affect transaction speed and cost structures. Cake Wallet’s implementation centers on maintaining self-custody while enabling faster transfers through the Lightning Network.

The decision not to publish transaction data to public explorers by default and not to embed Spark addresses in invoices directly affects how visible user activity is to third parties. For individuals concerned about blockchain transparency and traceability, these technical details may influence wallet selection.

At the same time, the absence of a requirement to run a Lightning node lowers the technical barrier to entry. Users can access Lightning functionality through a mobile interface without additional infrastructure.

Our Assessment

Cake Wallet’s integration of the Bitcoin Lightning Network introduces fast payment functionality with self-custody and privacy defaults built into the design. The implementation relies on the Breez SDK and Spark and avoids embedding Spark addresses in invoices or publishing transaction data to public explorers by default. Combined with existing features such as Silent Payments and Payjoin, the update expands the wallet’s Bitcoin-specific capabilities while maintaining a focus on user-controlled funds and limited transaction visibility.