Standard Chartered Calls Bitcoin Bottom

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Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Cycle Low Is In – Bank Points to $59,000 Bottom and Improving Market Conditions

Key Takeaways

Standard Chartered states that Bitcoin’s recent drop to about $59,000 marked the cycle low.
Bitcoin had recovered to around $64,000 at the time of the bank’s latest note.
The bank maintains a $100,000 year-end price target first issued in February.
More than $5.72 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows since mid-May are linked to liquidity shifts around the SpaceX IPO.
Geopolitical developments involving the United States and Iran are cited as a macro factor influencing risk assets.

Standard Chartered Declares End of Latest Crypto Downturn

Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, said on June 12 that the crypto market has likely reached its cycle low. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin’s recent decline to approximately $59,000 marked the bottom of the latest downturn.

The move represented a 53 percent drawdown from Bitcoin’s October all-time high of $126,000. At the time of Kendrick’s note, Bitcoin had rebounded to around $64,000, reflecting a gain of roughly 5 percent over the previous week.

Standard Chartered reiterated its $100,000 Bitcoin price target for year-end. The bank first communicated that projection in February and has not revised it following the recent volatility.

For market participants, including users of crypto trading and betting platforms, the statement signals that a major international bank views the recent correction as a completed phase rather than an ongoing decline.

SpaceX IPO Linked to Bitcoin ETF Outflows

One of the main factors cited by Kendrick is the Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The company priced its $75 billion initial public offering at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12. Shares opened about 20 percent above the IPO price on their first trading day.

Kendrick argued that part of the recent pressure on Bitcoin came from investors reallocating capital to participate in the IPO. Since the second week of May, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded more than $5.72 billion in outflows, described as among the sharpest since their inception.

According to Kendrick, some investors liquidated crypto positions to secure allocations in SpaceX. With the IPO now completed and trading underway, that specific source of selling pressure may ease.

Activity on the crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid reflected overlapping demand. Ahead of the debut, perpetual contracts for SpaceX accumulated more than $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour trading volume. This made SPCX the eighth-largest asset on the platform at that time.

The data highlights how capital flows between equities and digital assets can influence short-term liquidity conditions in crypto markets.

Geopolitical Developments and Oil Prices as Macro Drivers

The second major catalyst identified in Standard Chartered’s analysis concerns geopolitical developments involving the United States and Iran. A potential peace deal, possibly timed ahead of the upcoming G7 summit, could affect global oil supply expectations.

Oil markets have remained tight since the start of hostilities in the Middle East. Lower oil prices could reduce inflationary pressure and contribute to lower U.S. Treasury yields. Elevated yields have weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by increasing the relative attractiveness of government debt.

On June 12, West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 1.5 percent to around $85 to $86 per barrel. However, the diplomatic situation remains uncertain. President Trump stated that a breakthrough could come over the weekend but later indicated on Truth Social that the publicly discussed deal did not reflect the agreed terms, urging Iranian officials to “get their act together.”

For crypto markets, oil prices and bond yields remain part of the broader macro environment that influences institutional asset allocation.

Three Indicators Standard Chartered Is Monitoring

Kendrick outlined three specific signals that would support the bank’s view that the cycle low has been established.

First, he is watching for Strategy to announce an additional Bitcoin purchase. The company’s CEO, Michael Saylor, has a history of acquiring Bitcoin, and such purchases are described as a demand signal for institutional appetite.

Second, Kendrick expects U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net-positive daily inflows. A reversal from recent outflows would indicate renewed investor demand through regulated investment vehicles.

Third, he is monitoring continued declines in global oil prices as the situation involving Iran develops. Sustained easing in energy prices could influence bond yields and broader risk sentiment.

These factors, taken together, are presented by the bank as measurable indicators of shifting institutional and macro conditions.

Market Context: Recovery After a 53 Percent Drawdown

Bitcoin’s fall from $126,000 in October to about $59,000 represents a significant contraction in market value over several months. The subsequent rebound to around $64,000 occurred within a week of Kendrick’s latest assessment.

The scale of ETF outflows, exceeding $5.72 billion since mid-May, underscores the extent of capital movement during the correction. At the same time, trading activity tied to the SpaceX IPO illustrates how major equity events can coincide with liquidity shifts in crypto markets.

For users of crypto-focused platforms, including those who rely on Bitcoin for deposits or balances in betting and gaming services, price volatility and ETF flows can affect both asset valuation and transaction behavior.

Our Assessment

Standard Chartered has publicly stated that Bitcoin’s drop to approximately $59,000 marked the cycle low, maintaining its $100,000 year-end target. The bank links recent selling pressure to capital allocation around the SpaceX IPO and identifies geopolitical developments affecting oil prices and bond yields as additional macro drivers. It is monitoring corporate Bitcoin purchases, ETF inflows, and energy markets as confirmation signals of a broader recovery phase.