XRP Holds Key Support as RSI and MVRV Signal Possible Bottom

XRP Holds 1.25-1.30 Support Zone – Technical and Onchain Data Point to Possible Market Bottom

Key Takeaways

• XRP has been in an eight-month downtrend, with its RSI on the XRP/BTC pair reaching 24, the lowest level since October 2025.
• Previous similar RSI levels coincided with XRP/BTC breakouts ranging from 65 percent to 345 percent.
• XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level historically associated with accumulation zones and market bottoms.
• The 1.25-1.30 dollar range remains a key support area, with around 1.73 billion XRP acquired near this level.
• A break below 1.15 dollars could expose XRP to a potential move toward 0.80 dollars based on a bear flag target.

RSI on XRP-BTC Pair Reaches Deeply Oversold Territory

XRP has been trading in a sustained downtrend for eight months. According to TradingView data referenced by Cointelegraph, the relative strength index of the XRP/BTC ratio has fallen to 24. This marks the most oversold reading since October 2025.

Historically, similarly low RSI levels on the daily chart have coincided with macro bottoms for the XRP/BTC pair. Past instances in late 2024 and 2025 were followed by breakouts against Bitcoin ranging from 65 percent to 345 percent. The chart also shows that XRP/BTC is currently trading within a long consolidation range. In earlier cycles, this range served as a base before significant upward moves.

The most recent comparable setup occurred in June 2025. At that time, XRP bottomed against Bitcoin in the same zone and subsequently recorded a 61 percent increase in the XRP/BTC ratio. This move was accompanied by a 92 percent rally in the XRP/USD pair, which reached a multi-year high of 3.66 dollars.

These historical comparisons are based on chart patterns highlighted in Cointelegraph’s analysis. They show that the current RSI level and consolidation structure resemble previous bottoming phases in the XRP/BTC market.

MVRV Z-Score Near Zero Signals Reduced Sell Pressure

Onchain data from Glassnode adds further context to the current price structure. XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, Z-score is hovering near zero. Historically, this level has aligned with accumulation zones and broader market bottoms.

A Z-score near zero indicates that most holders are close to their breakeven price. In such situations, sell pressure tends to decrease because fewer market participants are sitting on large unrealized gains. Similar patterns were observed in 2021, 2022 and 2024 before major rallies in XRP’s price.

In late 2024, the MVRV Z-score fell to comparable levels when XRP traded around 0.30 dollars. That period marked a macro bottom and preceded a multi-month rally in which the XRP/USD pair rose by 500 percent to a multi-year high above 3 dollars.

Glassnode data also shows that the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically marked cycle bottoms, is currently positioned at 1.14 dollars. This level coincides with a 15-month low reached on February 6. The alignment between pricing bands and recent lows is part of the broader onchain framework used to assess whether an asset is trading near historical undervaluation zones.

Support at 1.25-1.30 Dollars Remains Structurally Important

From a price structure perspective, the 1.25-1.30 dollar zone is currently viewed as a critical support area. XRP has sustained this range since early February 2026. According to trader commentary cited by Cointelegraph, maintaining this zone keeps the short-term structure intact and leaves room for a potential move toward 1.45 dollars.

Cost basis distribution data from Glassnode reinforces the importance of this range. Approximately 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around these levels. When large volumes of tokens are accumulated at a specific price zone, that area can act as support because holders may be less inclined to sell below their entry price.

Below the 1.25-1.30 dollar band, the next significant support lies near 1.15 dollars. This level coincides with the 200-week simple moving average and a defined demand zone. A decisive break below 1.15 dollars would weaken the broader structure and open the path toward the measured target of a bear flag pattern at 0.80 dollars. Such a move would represent a 41 percent decline from the current price referenced in the analysis.

On the upside, holding above 1.27-1.30 dollars is described as a sign of strength. To regain broader control, bulls would need to push XRP/USD toward the 1.61 dollar range high.

Why These Levels Matter for Market Participants

For crypto users and market observers, the combination of technical and onchain indicators provides a structured framework for evaluating XRP’s current position. The RSI on the XRP/BTC pair reflects relative momentum against Bitcoin, while the MVRV Z-score offers insight into holder profitability and potential sell pressure.

Support and resistance levels such as 1.25-1.30 dollars, 1.15 dollars and 1.61 dollars define short- and medium-term thresholds. These price zones are relevant for anyone assessing risk exposure, position sizing or capital allocation within the XRP market.

The interaction between historical bottom signals, onchain valuation bands and clearly defined support levels forms the basis of the current analysis.

Our Assessment

The available data shows that XRP is trading at technical and onchain levels that have previously coincided with macro bottoms. The RSI on the XRP/BTC pair is at its lowest point since October 2025, and the MVRV Z-score is near zero, a zone historically linked to accumulation phases. At the same time, the 1.25-1.30 dollar area remains a key structural support, with substantial token volume acquired at this range. Whether this zone continues to hold will determine if the current setup resembles past bottom formations or transitions into a deeper correction toward lower support levels.