Opta supercomputer predicts Champions League winner after league phase
The Opta supercomputer has calculated the probabilities for the 2025-26 Champions League winner following the conclusion of the competition’s league phase.
Data analysts ran 10,000 simulations to determine the likely destination of the trophy as the tournament moves into the knockout stages.
The league phase concluded with high drama, highlighted by Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring in the 98th minute of a 4-2 victory over Real Madrid.
Eight clubs have now secured automatic passage to the Round of 16.
A further 16 teams will compete in playoff encounters to decide the remaining spots in the next phase.
Holders face battle to retain title
Paris Saint-Germain enter the knockouts as the defending champions.
Luis Enrique’s side claimed their maiden crown with a stunning 5-0 victory over Inter Milan in June.
Despite their status as holders, the simulations suggest the Parisians face a difficult challenge to replicate that success in Budapest next May.
Several major European names failed to make the top 20 list of potential winners after exiting the competition early.
Dutch giants Ajax and Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt were among the high-profile casualties.
Napoli, managed by Antonio Conte and captained by Kevin De Bruyne, also crashed out during the initial stage.
Statistical outsiders identified
The predictive model has highlighted the steep mountain facing the competition’s underdogs.
AS Monaco have been given just a 0.01% chance of lifting the trophy.
The Ligue 1 side last reached the final in 2004 but are considered long shots to go all the way this season.
Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt are ranked marginally higher than Monaco in the probablity tables.
Kjetil Knutsen’s men produced one of the shocks of the season by defeating Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City 3-1 in January.
However, the data suggests a repeat of such heroics deep into the tournament is statistically unlikely.
Osimhen leads Turkish hopes
Galatasaray have been afforded a 0.11% chance of European glory.
The Turkish giants are spearheaded by Victor Osimhen, widely regarded as one of the world’s most potent forwards.
Osimhen’s goals helped secure a 20th-place finish in the league table, booking a spot in the playoff round.
Greek side Olympiacos sit just behind them with a 0.10% probability rating.
Qarabag, described as the competition’s surprise package, reached the playoffs despite a heavy 6-0 defeat to Liverpool on the final matchday.
Despite their progression, the algorithm indicates that winning the tournament is statistically beyond the Azerbaijani champions.