Opta supercomputer predicts England and Scotland 2026 World Cup odds
An Opta supercomputer has rated England as third favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, while predicting a challenging tournament for returning Scotland.
The month-long festival of football will commence on June 11, featuring an opening fixture between co-hosts Mexico and South Africa.
Ahead of the tournament, analytical prediction models calculate Thomas Tuchel’s side have an 11.05% probability of lifting the trophy in North America.
This statistical forecast places the Three Lions behind only reigning European champions Spain, who sit at 15.98%, and 2018 winners France on 12.24%.
Expectations remain high for the English national team following a flawless qualification campaign that yielded eight consecutive victories.
Navigating the group stages
The Euro 2024 finalists face a potentially tricky Group L assignment against Croatia, Ghana and Panama.
Despite these hurdles, the data suggests the 1966 winners possess a commanding 69.22% chance of advancing to the round of 16.
Further projections indicate a 47.78% likelihood of reaching the quarter-finals, mirroring the exact stage where their previous global campaign ended.
The mathematical algorithms also give the squad an 18.79% chance of making their first final appearance on the world stage in 60 years.
Scotland face uphill battle
Meanwhile, Steve Clarke’s team are preparing for their first appearance at the global showpiece since 1998.
The Tartan Army secured their highly anticipated return by topping their qualification group, an achievement highlighted by a memorable 4-2 triumph over Denmark.
They have been handed a formidable Group C draw featuring five-time winners Brazil, historic African semi-finalists Morocco, and Haiti.
Consequently, sports analysts give the Scottish contingent a slim 9.93% chance of progressing automatically from the initial phase.
Expanded tournament format
However, the expanded 48-team structure of the upcoming tournament offers an alternative route to the knockout rounds.
The revised format allows the top two nations in each group, alongside the eight best third-placed teams, to advance.
Should the Scottish squad successfully navigate this complex opening stage, their probability of reaching the round of 16 jumps to a more encouraging 24.25%.
Defending champions Argentina are rated at 10.26% to retain their crown, placing them just ahead of traditional heavyweights Portugal, Brazil and Germany.
