World Cup 2026: Experts predict cartels will avoid disrupting Mexico tournament

Experts believe Mexican cartels will likely allow the 2026 World Cup to proceed peacefully despite a recent surge in violence following the death of a notorious drug lord.

Authorities have reported significant unrest across the host nation following the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as ‘El Mencho’.

The leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was a central figure in the country’s organised crime landscape.

His death triggered road blockades and vehicle arson, leading to calls for Mexico to be stripped of its hosting duties.

Economic interests shield tournament

However, academics suggest that criminal groups have a financial incentive to ensure the tournament runs smoothly.

Javier Eskauriatza, assistant professor of criminal law at the University of Nottingham, told the BBC that these organisations are deeply embedded in the local economy.

“In general, the cartels have an economic interest in making sure the World Cup is peaceful,” he said.

“Yes, they pay off politicians and local police forces, but they also buy restaurants and own hotels.”

“They are part of the economic system.”

“It is useful for them if Brits, Americans, and others go to Mexico, spend their money and have a good time.”

Potential path for British teams

Mexico is scheduled to host 13 matches across Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey.

Depending on group stage results, British supporters could find themselves travelling to these regions.

If England win their group, their last-16 tie would take place in the capital, Mexico City.

Should Scotland qualify and finish second in their pool, the Tartan Army would travel to Monterrey for a round-of-32 match.

‘Moderate’ risk for fans

Dr Karina Garcia-Reyes, a senior lecturer in criminology at UWE Bristol, described the threat level for visiting supporters as “moderate”.

“Unless more military operations are conducted this week, I would expect that the authorities in the most affected areas will be able to address potential risks,” she explained.

“Overall I would expect tourists to be safe as long as they follow the authorities’ indications.”

Fifa has confirmed it is “closely monitoring” the situation and remains in constant communication with government agencies regarding public safety.