Bitcoin Stabilizes Above $68,500 as Analysts Maintain Bear Market View

Bitcoin Reclaims $68,500 as Downside Momentum Fades – Analysts Say Bear Market Structure Remains Intact

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin recently reclaimed its 20-day moving average near $68,500, with price briefly moving above $70,000 on Coinbase.
• The $62,500 level has held on three separate tests, reinforcing it as support according to 10x Research.
• Volatility is compressing, ETF flows have strengthened, and the Coinbase discount has disappeared.
• Analysts state that while downside momentum is fading, Bitcoin remains classified within a broader bear market regime.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Stabilization After Recent Declines

Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests that selling pressure may be losing intensity, according to multiple analysts cited by Cointelegraph. 10x Research noted that Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower despite risk-off headlines, describing this as a signal that downside pressure could be fading.

The asset reclaimed its 20-day moving average near $68,500. Bollinger Bands are tightening, a technical condition that often precedes range expansion. In late trading on Monday, Bitcoin returned to just above $70,000 on Coinbase before retreating to around $68,400 at the time of reporting, based on TradingView data.

From a technical perspective, the $62,500 level has held on three separate tests. 10x Research described this as reinforcing the level as meaningful support. At the same time, bullish divergences are emerging. Both the relative strength index and stochastic indicators are trending higher, which analysts interpret as early signs that momentum may be stabilizing, even within a broader bearish structure.

Analysts Describe a Tactical Shift, Not a Structural Reversal

Despite these signals, 10x Research emphasized that the current developments do not amount to a confirmed trend reversal. The firm characterized the situation as a meaningful tactical shift rather than a structural turn in market conditions.

Volatility compression, stronger ETF flows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase discount were cited as evidence that the market is not accelerating into a fresh leg lower. The Coinbase discount refers to a situation where Bitcoin trades at a lower price on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. Its disappearance indicates improved price alignment.

However, under its broader allocation framework, 10x Research continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime. As a result, the firm considers any bullish exposure to be tactical rather than structural.

This distinction is relevant for market participants evaluating short-term positioning versus longer-term allocation strategies. According to the analysts, current signals suggest stabilization, but they do not yet confirm a broader reversal from the prevailing downtrend.

Macro and Crypto Events Contribute to Measured Market Conditions

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that recent price weakness followed a series of macroeconomic and crypto-native events that had pushed the market lower.

He noted that the market environment has shifted from what he described as frantic conditions to something more measured. In his assessment, this change in tone supports the possibility of consolidation, accumulation, or a period of range-bound trading.

D’Anethan pointed out that selling pressure has not had as much impact as might be expected given developments such as tariffs, the prospect of a war, or previously disappointing rate cut expectations. He stated that this could indicate that sellers are becoming exhausted or that buyers are averaging into positions at current levels.

These observations focus on market behavior rather than forecasting direction. The absence of sharp follow-through to the downside, even amid adverse headlines, is presented as evidence of waning momentum.

Short Squeeze Linked to Deeply Negative Funding Rates

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, offered a derivatives-focused explanation for Bitcoin’s recent bounce. He said that downside momentum is fading primarily due to deeply negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets.

Negative funding rates mean that short sellers are paying long position holders to maintain their positions. According to Adziima, this environment led to overcrowded short positions. As Bitcoin rebounded sharply from lows near $63,000, a classic short squeeze was triggered. Heavy liquidations followed, easing selling pressure through what he described as tactical relief.

Despite this rebound, Adziima stated that no confirmed trend reversal has occurred. He cited the absence of structural inflows, a lack of macro catalysts, and the persistence of the broader downtrend from the all-time high. He also referenced fragile liquidity and resistance levels ahead.

This analysis indicates that the recent price strength may be linked to positioning dynamics rather than new capital entering the market.

Implications for Market Participants

For traders and investors, the current environment combines signs of stabilization with ongoing structural caution. Technical indicators such as tightening Bollinger Bands and bullish divergences suggest that selling pressure has moderated. At the same time, analysts consistently highlight that the broader bear market framework remains intact.

The interaction between spot market behavior, ETF flows, exchange pricing dynamics, and derivatives positioning illustrates how multiple factors are shaping short-term price movements. Funding rate imbalances and short squeezes can produce sharp rebounds without necessarily altering the longer-term trend.

For users active in crypto markets, including those transacting in Bitcoin for trading or payment purposes, these conditions point to a market that is stabilizing but not yet confirmed to have shifted into a new structural phase.

Our Assessment

Based on the information provided, analysts agree that Bitcoin’s downside momentum has weakened, supported by technical indicators, stronger ETF flows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase discount. However, multiple sources maintain that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear market regime. Recent price gains are attributed in part to short squeezes driven by negative funding rates rather than confirmed structural inflows or macro catalysts. The overall picture reflects tactical stabilization without verified trend reversal.